Chopra recalled that the Dalai Lama said, “I am not angry with the Chinese. I`m just angry at what they did. But they did what they did with their state of consciousness, and one day we will have a solution. Let`s say you`re the follower whose point of view has not been adopted. It is difficult. When we feel that our perspectives are being ignored, we feel hurt and frustrated, and sometimes even angry. This is natural, and we must remember that our brain first processes everything through our emotional center. We need to practice breathing. Press Pause.
You will think and speak more clearly once you are able to overcome the emotional response that may be sooner or later depending on the situation. Right now, it`s okay to say, “You know, from my comments, that I don`t like this direction and I wouldn`t do it if I was the one making the call. Please give me some space to deal with it, but I promise you I won`t talk about this decision with others in a way that disrespects you. Note: The solid line is the median of the expected disagreement within the party. The dotted lines are the 95% confidence intervals based on simulations that use 1,000 draws of the estimated variance-covariance matrix from Model 4 in Table 1. The values of the independent variables are set in such a way that the intended effects apply to an opposition party that did not change its vote or government status in the last election. The dotted line is the distribution of the change in the GDP growth rate and refers to the right axis. Based on these studies, we predict that electoral successes and government experiences will influence internal party politics.
Parties that pass the elections are likely to attract more pragmatic supporters who hope to benefit from the party`s access to government. Footnote 29 As long as the party leadership maintains electoral support, internal party competitors will go on behalf of the leaders or connect to the leaders` call to curry favour with the leader and groups within the party. Because of this pragmatic behavior, disagreements within the party are likely to be limited if the leadership attracts sufficient electoral support for the party. 83 Given the small number of observations, a direct interpretation of significance for the parties` individual tests must be treated with caution. We also include estimates for the UMP one-party congress in Model 4. The exclusion of the UMP leads to similar conclusions. However, few studies directly analyze party politics and its influence on party preferences, although empirical studies of parliamentary behavior show that divisions within the party often limit party leaders. Footnote 16 Party members regularly deviate from the preferences of the party leadership in the election campaign and in their conduct in Parliament. Footnote 17 Researchers assume that party leaders typically receive the support of a large majority of internal party supporters, but that internal party competitors may be able to mobilize support from groups with different political interests within the party. Modern catch-all parties often bring together different political supporters, each preferring their political goals as the party`s priority. Footnote 18 The results of our analysis are consistent with an explanation of intraparty politics that focuses on the party`s internal rules and electoral context. Similarly, the results suggest that our actions provide meaningful estimates of the state of preferences of intra-party actors that can be adapted to many research objectives.
In a broader sense, we find evidence of a complex relationship between party electoral performance, experiences in government, and division within the party. For the preparation of our measure, we collected transcripts of the party`s national congresses on the party websites and using the data archives of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) and the Jean-Jaurès-Fondation (JJF). Footnote 68 Kas has provided transcripts for all CDU congresses since 1950, with only transcripts from 1990 onwards being easily machine-readable. The merger of the East German CDU with the West German CDU in 1990 also offers a significant moment to begin our analysis. Transcripts for the SPD have only been available online since 2002. For the PS, the JJF`s archives contain machine-readable transcripts of its first party congress in 1969 to 2000. Transcripts for the UMP are only available in full for the 2004 Congress. This translates into 453 speeches in the Federal Assembly of the CDU and 166 speeches for the SPD.
We include forty-nine observations for the votes of the candidates for the leadership of the party from 1969 to 2000 for the PS and three observations from 2004 for the UMP. Footnote 69 Today, this is easier said than done. On social media and in real life, we regularly engage with people whose beliefs and core values seem to clash with our own. Disagreements over whether masks are slowing the spread of the coronavirus, whether people are allowed to work from home during the pandemic, or who should have won the US presidential election too often degenerate into heated discussions. We mentor new leaders to ask others how they like to disagree: I recently saw a post on LinkedIn saying that good leaders should surround themselves with people who offer different perspectives and can make them confident to do so. This, of course, is not a new concept, and it seems like I`ve heard it more often lately. And it`s true. Good leaders should allow the people around them to offer different perspectives and opinions. In addition, we add that the experience of the parties in government influences the heterogeneity within the party.
The longer a party stays in power, the higher the likelihood of a global event or crisis that forces leaders to make unpopular political decisions. Footnote 31 Parties that have long-term success in government are filled with actors who have more disparate and pragmatic political goals,footnote 32 but they stay with the party leader because their main interest is to stay in power. In addition, economic conditions and coalition leadership encourage compromises on a wide range of policy areas. Footnote 33 The exercise of government responsibility and jurisdiction can influence the distribution of preferences and factional dominance within parties. Negative assessments of the party leadership also encourage questioning of the party leadership. Then focus on positive statements. Instead of linguistic markers such as “no,” “shouldn`t,” and “can`t,” check to see if you can make positive statements with “yes,” “should,” and “may.” At the same time, pay attention to the scope of your claims. By being more precise and narrower in your claims, you will avoid looking like a grandiloquent connoisseur closed to other points of view. In most parties, there can be only one party leader; The candidate with the most votes wins. However, there are striking examples where parties argue over multiple candidates. In the French Socialist Party in the early 1990s, for example, three candidates each received about a quarter of the party`s votes.
Footnote 47 A single faction or group may dominate the parties for a longer period of time, but changes in the distribution of intra-party factions may increase uncertainty as to which faction will receive party support. Footnote 48 In addition to a single leader, many parties also have multi-level structures, which include committees of various sizes that support the elected leader of the party. In summary, we argue that the causes and consequences of intra-party preferences are determined by the electoral context and the governing role of the parties. In a broader sense, we believe that internal party factions and party members use speeches at party congresses to signal their inner strength and the location of their ideal preferences. Individual party members speak to signal their preferences and thus attract the leaders` preference statements over their own. Although in some countries party leaders control who speaks at party congresses, party delegates from France and Germany are free to attend party meetings as the party leadership tries to avoid excluding support groups. Footnote 60 For example, various groups within the party send representatives to speak on their behalf at party conventions. Footnote 61 These speeches are similar to the preferences of delegates to these meetings and the preferences of party members at large.
In the next section, we describe our new dataset and method for deriving positions from intra-party discourse. Like studies of economic elections, we assume that voters hold parties accountable for the economy. Footnote 34 As the most important issue and ideological division in most modern democracies, public perceptions of the economy provide a clear indicator of government success. We argue that party members and internal party opponents also use the economy to assess the party`s skills and popularity. The challengers are unlikely to differ from the current leadership if the party is perceived as good. Footnote 35 On the other hand, internal party groups will express their dissatisfaction with the party leadership if the public perceives the party as incompetent or irresponsible…